Hey, it's Chef Mike
In this edition, I break down why grocery spend is rising even as loyalty slips, what it means when dietitians guide decisions in the aisle, and the kind of early infrastructure that helps startups scale before they are “ready.” Want a gut check on your next product move? Reply with the quick version and I’ll give you a straight answer. Contents:
🛒 Grocery Spend Is Rising but Loyalty Is Falling 💪 When the Grocery Aisle Becomes Part of the Care Plan 🥦 Lowering the Barrier to Entry for Food Startups 📅 Event Highlight: Winter FancyFaire 2026 |
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🛒 Grocery Spend Is Rising, But Loyalty Is Falling |
Consumers expect grocery spending to rise in 2026, but they are still in deal mode. A new AlixPartners survey found grocery is the only category where outlays are projected to increase, even as shoppers cut back elsewhere. 🔹 Higher spend, tight mindset:
About one third of U.S. respondents expect to spend more on groceries next year, while roughly half expect spending to stay the same. Ages 25 to 44 and higher income shoppers are the most likely to increase spend. 🔹 Value wins, loyalty loses:
60% say they would switch retailers for better prices or promotions, far more than those who would switch for service or convenience. Digital and delivery are making it easier to cherry pick deals across multiple stores.
🔹 Behavior shifts underway: Among shoppers planning to reduce grocery spend, 45% say they will plan more and cut impulse buys, about the same share will trade down to cheaper options, and over a third will shop less often. 🔹 Pressure is still real:
Two thirds of those cutting spend say it is because they have less money available, not because they want to spend elsewhere.
📢 Bottom Line:
Grocery dollars may rise, but the fight is for value. Brands that win in 2026 will be the ones that make it easy to feel smart, affordable price packs, clear promotions, and better for you benefits that justify the spend. |
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💪 When the Grocery Aisle Becomes Part of the Care Plan |
The Food as Medicine study confirmed what many of us already feel on the ground. When dietitians move out of clinics and into grocery stores, health outcomes move with them. Shoppers who got guided support in the retail environment did not just learn more, they lost weight, trimmed waistlines, and improved blood pressure.
If the store is where guidance happens, it is also where product decisions get locked in. That has real implications for how we design and position food and beverage: 🔹 Products need clear roles in a nutrition plan, not vague wellness language. 🔹 Packaging has to make it easy for RDNs and shoppers to connect items to specific health goals.
🔹 Convenience, price, and quality still matter, so FAM friendly options must fit real life, not just ideal plans. 🚀 Chef Mike’s Take:
Food as Medicine is not just a healthcare trend, it is a product brief. If your item can sit comfortably in an RDN guided meal plan, you are building for the next phase of grocery, where the cart and the care plan start to look very similar. |
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🥦 Lowering the Barrier to Entry for Food Startups |
In its early days, Hungryroot relied on the OFI to access the kind of commercial kitchen infrastructure that would have been impossible to afford on its own. Instead of tying up limited capital in equipment and build out, the team could focus on product, brand, and learning the production process with hands on guidance from Mike Schwartz and his crew.
"The Organic Food Incubator has been invaluable in offering our startup business the correct commercial kitchen infrastructure at a reasonable price. We never would have had the ability to get our business off the ground financially as the cost of investing into a kitchen is prohibitive." - Greg Struck, Co-Founder, Hungryroot
This kind of early support, pairing space with real production know how, shows how the OFI helps young brands move from idea to viable operation, especially when traditional manufacturers will not work with them due to minimums or startup risk. |
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📅 Event Highlight: Winter FancyFaire 2026 |
Kick off the new year with the specialty food community at Winter FancyFaire, the first major industry event of 2026. Discover emerging trends, sample sofi Award winners, and connect with retailers, distributors, and fellow innovators across a reimagined show floor and offsite tasting experiences. 🗓 January 11–13, 2026
📍 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego, CA |
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“If you have a good experience in a restaurant, you tell 2 people. If you have a bad experience, you tell 10 people.” |
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